I've been in Korea about 8 months now. I've been thinking and reading a lot about Korean affairs and international affairs more generally, but I'm getting the itch to start writing about it, too. Here's what I'm paying attention to in Korean affairs right now:
Inter-Korean Relations: I don't have a good idea whether this past winter's foolishness from the DPRK was evidence of a power struggle (although a few post-crisis leadership moves in the DPRK might speak more to that) or simply a particularly ham-fisted edition of standard North Korean crisis-mongering. Either way, it doesn't strike me as a particularly dynamic time for the DPRK with respect to the South or any other policy. If it is, it's early days yet.
On the other hand, South Korea's approach to the issue may be undergoing some change. New president Park Geun-hye's platform advocated "principled" engagement with the DPRK. It's something of a middle ground between the conservatives' previously frigid relations with the North and the Democratic Party's "Sunshine Policy" of the early 2000s.
The upshot of Park's policy is that the bridges burned earlier this year can be rebuilt, but it will take a while. Initial post-crisis rapprochement talks were delayed for months over the relative seniority of the two sides' attending officials, and are still proceeding slowly.
US-ROK Policy Coordination:
The U.S. policy on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is one of "strategic patience." American policymakers believe that the nuclear threat from the DPRK is not urgent enough and the prospects for meaningful progress are not promising enough to warrant further action beyond tightening the grip of international sanctions. The U.S. has no interest in resuming the six-party talks without concrete steps toward denuclearization from the DPRK.
South Korea has more rhetorical wiggle room on DPRK policy, and for good reason: its citizens have a deep cultural connection and abiding empathy for their fellow Koreans (though not the regime). Park's "principled" engagement policy is a reflection of that link, but it hasn't made much difference in the first few months of her term. Instead, the DPRK's missile launch, nuclear test, and saber-rattling pushed the new administration more toward the U.S.
If the DPRK maintains its current course of seeking better relations with the South - a big if - then the next six months of Park's presidency will tell us much more about her administration's goals vis-a-vis the DPRK than the first six months did.
Korean Domestic Politics:
It may just be my American perspective, accustomed to a fairly static two-party system, but there seems to be a lot going on here. Korea's main liberal party, the Democratic Party, is threatened by internal division and a new rising star on the left.
That rising star is Ahn Cheol-soo, a former CEO and maverick presidential candidate in last year's election. Ahn, running on the left, promised a new kind of politics and polled close with the two major-party candidates before bowing out to give the left a chance at beating the conservative Park. In his return to politics this year, Ahn won a parliamentary seat as an independent candidate, and rumors are rife that he'll soon declare his own party.
Even without the spectre of a new rival liberal movement, the Democrats might be in trouble. The party is divided over the legacy of late former President Roh Moo-hyun, who committed suicide in 2009 amid a bribery scandal that began just months after he left office. Roh's defenders make up much of the party leadership, and the Democrats' 2012 presidential candidate was Roh's former chief of staff.
Ahn might not be able to translate his star power into a long-lasting politcal movement; he may not even try. But the ingredients are there for a coup. If Ahn tries to cook one up and unseat the Democrats as Korea's leading liberal party, he could have huge effects on Korean politics in both success and failure.
What would those effects be? Ask me again later.
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