Venezulea and the End of the World

Its been a while since I've posted, but there was a good article on Foreign Policy today. Written by Roger Noriega, who was a member of the Bush administration and is an expert on South American affairs. The article describes the mounting circumstantial evidence that Venezuela may be aiding Iran with acquiring uranium, and that in turn Iran may be helping Venezuela develop a nascent nuclear power program. Obviously the terrifying implication here is that Chavez may one day be able to back up his insane rhetoric and posturing with nuclear weapons. However, even if Venezuela is beginning to walk down the path of nuclear weapons development (which I highly doubt it is), there is little reason to be concerned.

If in 5-10 years there is evidence that Chavez is attempting to develop these weapons, the US could easily destroy its facilities without fear of major repercussions. The multitude of barriers that prevent a strike on Iran (Iranian ability to retaliate against U.S forces and Israel, highly unstable region, powerful ties between Iran and China/Russia) do not apply to Venezuela. Venezuela's neighbors would be abhorred by the idea of a nuclear Chavez, Brazil and Colombia would either seek to develop their own or would seek assurance from the US that they would be protected by our nuclear umbrella. A strike against Venezuelan nuclear sites would bring some grumblings about "American Imperialism" from Cuba and other leftist South American governments, but there would be few other reprecussions.

I think it is almost impossible for this scenario to occur, unless Chavez is completely insane or a complete idiot. The more pressing issue is the increasing ties between Iran and Venezuela. If Chavez is providing the Iranians with uranium, then Venezuela is violating UN sanctions. I think that the Iranian sanctions are the best foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration. Everyday brings news that the sanctions are causing further disarray in Iran. Eventually these pressures will cause some change with Iran's actions. It is vitally important that gaps in the sanctions be found and closed, or we will just end up with meaningless sanctions (i.e. Iraq in the late 90's/ early 2000's).

In the long term, it will be interesting to see how Venezuela develops. There has been some recent evidence that Chavez's power has been weakening due to his infringement on civil liberties and failed economic policies. Clearly on the international stage Chavez relishes being a foil to America, much like Ahmadinejad. I suspect that is why these two have been buddying up, what better way to annoy America than to have two of its major headaches work together. Chavez did this a fear years ago with Russia, inviting some of its military units to visit while relations were cool between the US and Russia.

Will the US allow Venezulea to grow into a regional power in South America? We've been subtly supporting Colombia as a means of balancing against Chavez, could this become more overt? Finally, what role will Brazil play? Brazil is one of those countries prognosticators love to call a future great power. It will be interesting to see if this turns out to be the case, and what its relationship will be to the US and Venezuela. Many would argue that the Monroe Doctrine is out of date, but just how would the US react to a growing power in South America? We were once concerned with foreign powers interfering in the western hemisphere, will we willingly accept a home grown great power? Many of these questions will define South America for the next 50 years. While it has been a continent largely off the international stage for sometime, I would not be surprised to see this change.