Turkey and Israel are at it again

Photo credit: The Economist (also, an article worth reading)

In case you haven’t been following recent developments in the Middle East/North Africa region other than Libya—and let’s face it, it’s my academic guilty pleasure so I can hardly expect everyone to—Turkey and Israel are at it again. The briefest outline goes a little something like this: 9 Turkish citizens are killed as part of an aid flotilla to the West Bank, Turkey demands an apology, Israel refuses to apologize, the UN investigation is leaked which calls the actions of the Israeli commandos unnecessary but also does not call the blockade illegal, Israel still refuses to apologize, Turkey expels the Israeli ambassador, Israeli FM approaches the internationally recognized Kurdish terrorist group the PKK with talk of support, the PKK also demands an apology, Turkish PM visits Cairo, there is an attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo.  With Turkish threats of warship escorts, and Israel just not being cooperative, the U.S. is stuck between a rock and a hard place this week at the UN.

In an increasingly multipolar world, countries must vie for the favor of their respective regional power in order to protect as many of their own interests as possible. With Turkey squarely in the opposition-camp as far as Israel is concerned, and Egypt’s new government still in transition (and therefore its position on Israel undecided), I can only imagine that Israel is feeling threatened. And its actions are indicative of its fear. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has, at least, expressed admiration of Erdogan’s government in Turkey, which has its Islamist moments while still (somehow) remaining a secular party. With the turmoil of the Arab Spring, Israel has found itself in a turbulent neighborhood that it does not entirely recognize. It has done itself a disservice by actively alienating one of its most important allies in the region, and Turkish influence only seems to be growing within the region.


The decline in Turkish-Israeli relations has not come as the swift blow that the media seems to make it. It has been in a slow decline for years. Instead of reconciliation, both countries have only stoked the fire resulting in the current diplomatic falling out. Although Erdogan has called Israel a “spoiled child,” both countries have been acting like children expecting to get their way. In fact, if there is any time when diplomatic communication should be strengthened, it should be now. However, both Turkey and Israel are plagued with--and constrained by--national pride. This is in direct contradiction of the Turkish foreign policy ideology “Zero Problems with Neighbors.” (Granted, I am too much of a realist to believe that such a thing is ever possible, but that could be the subject of an entire post itself.)


The danger faced now, with Turkey’s growing popularity among the Arab nations and support for Palestinian statehood, is that Israel will escalate this conflict out of desperation. The US, Israel’s perennial sponsor, cannot become involved due to it already being over extended in the Middle East, an increasingly isolationist—or at the very-least non-interventionist—sentiment domestically, and a perilous presidential election looming. With domestic concerns running so high, it would be political suicide for a president to do more than wag a diplomatic finger at both parties. And, honestly, it’s better that the hands of the US are so tied. This could leave Israel desperate and alone.

There isn't an easy solution for the clash of interests caused regional support of the Palestinian plight and Israeli right-wing radical conservatism.  It is clear that the U.S. might need to be involved to keep things from escalating, but it should take care to tread lightly.