Handing Israel a Deservedly Large Slice of STUF Cake

Or:  When Friends No Longer Act Like Friends

Here you go

          Historically, the United States and Israel (especially Israel) have enjoyed a very close relationship. Harry Truman stuck his neck out in the international system to make the US the first country to recognize Israel (against the advice of most of his cabinet departments), and ever since, Israel has been treated like our kid brother in a school full of Arab/Persian/Muslim bullies. Whenever they attack Israel, we're outraged, and whenever Israel attacks them, we turn a blind eye. This was all well and good when we could count on Israel to support us and follow our guidance in an equally loyal way, but Israel increasingly goes against us. Well, I say, “No more!”.

          Israel's actions and our tacit and implicit support for them have always created antagonistic feeling in our relationships with Middle Eastern countries. Incidents like the attack on the Mavi Marmara demonstrate a clear lack of restraint in the way Israel's defense policy is applied. This is a controversial topic, and it is very unfortunate that lives were lost in both the crew and the Israeli commandos. The fact remains however, that the highest authorities in the IDF command structure gave authorization for military forces to board a foreign ship in international waters, and then killed foreign nationals. Nations all over the world were swift and strong in their criticism of Israeli actions in the incident, but the US was relatively quiet.

          The settlement problem is a more long term issue, but similar – there is definite antagonism on the part of Israeli citizens, which is often actively, and at least passively supported by the Israeli government (with some notable exceptions). Once again there is a clear violation of international law on the part of Israel, but officials of the US government have generally allowed the issue to slide because it is so dangerous to a political career to come out against Israel. Taking them to task on the illegal settlements would gain us major political capital with countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and others, whose cooperation we actually need, and whose friendship would actually help achieve our policy goals in the Middle East.

          There is no question that the US should continue to treat Israel as a friend. But, just as in your personal life, if an individual friend isn't being a good friend to you, you have to give them a strong talking to, and if that doesn't work, leave them! It's not healthy to let your friends cause you grief and ignore all your advice and needs as a person, and it's very dangerous to do so as a country! Israel has enjoyed the nearly-unconditional support of the US up until this point, largely because of a strong Jewish-American voting block and the strength of AIPAC and related lobbying groups. Even those legislators who would like to ask Israel to behave more reasonably often can't do so for fear of losing the very office they would use to do it. So then, you ask, what are we to do?

The solution:

Option one: Hold Netinyahu more accountable in private, threaten to cease unconditional support for Israel, maintain current public stance.

          This course leads to a problem of credibility – if Netinyahu bucks Obama's guidance, which he likely will, Obama is forced to actively side against Israel or punish them, seemingly without warning.  That leads to a major problem for relations with an important block of voters and supporters coming into an important midterm election.

Option two: Hold Netinyahu accountable in public.

          This causes immediate problems with the AIPAC crowd, but in the long term, playing hardball and forcing concessions out of Israel could get negotiations moving in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, make up for past unconditional support of Israel, and build political capital with regional allies like Turkey, Saudia Arabia, which we will need as we continue to deal with Iran.

The Ideal: Remove the influence of AIPAC.

          Unfortunately, this would require a massive national push to counteract the collective action problem inherent in interest group activity (Ha. Ha ha.) or a move back to the old system in Congress where individual members aren't held responsible for their individual votes, and thus interest groups have no way to influence them. Neither of these options is realistic, but they are the only way the socially ideal outcome (reasonable Israel policy without committing political suicide) can occur. Once again, we arrive at the ISM crew's favorite conclusion:  Interest group politics is ruining the United States of America.

          So, pragmatically, Mr. Obama, I say: Go with option number 2. Hold Israel accountable for its actions. Do it either November 3^rd, 2010, and hope that your successes are obvious and timely enough to make up ground by 2012, or do it November 7, 2012, and take comfort that you will never have to stand for election again, and don't have to give a damn whether AIPAC likes you or not, and that the history books will give you your just reward. That is, as soon as we get someone printing them besides the neo-cons. But that, my friends, is for another day.