Where in the world is Turkey?

Or Who Lost Turkey? or Three-Level Games

Everyone just calm down, take a deep breath. Turkey is still in the same place it has always been (geographically at least). It has not been lost. It has not gone over to the dark side.

I’ve read my fair share of articles since the May 30th flotilla incident, and trust me, there have been quite a few. For a while in there, it seemed like watching a tennis game. One day Turkey was lost to the West and was trying to reestablish the Ottoman Empire or become the new champion of the Arab world, the next day its new found ties with Iran are unraveling and Turkish officials are having secret meetings with Israeli officials in Switzerland. Just a quick stroll down Real Clear World’s page on Turkey reveals the uncertainty, and it’s almost comic. But what is obvious is that Turkey wants to be just what it is: Turkey, no longer the “sick man of Europe” or America’s puppet in the Middle East, but a country with a rapidly growing economy, a strategic location, and a sovereign government.

What is necessary to understanding where Turkey is today is looking at how they got there. Massive inflation had plagued the country from the late 1970s, largely unchecked by the (then) dominant party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Despite a few snags (or military interventions as some might call them), Turkey didn’t do much of anything else. EU membership was talked about, but never actively pursued. There was not much headway made in terms of modernization or economic growth domestically. And still inflation raged on.

Fast forward to the early 2000s, when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) grew out of the ruins of a disbanded Islamic party. They promised to bolster the economy and create jobs and to make EU accession an attainable goal. And they certainly managed to do more than the CHP. Villagers liked them because government sponsored development created jobs. Young entrepreneurs liked them because the newly stable economy was profitable. And the Westward looking intellectuals were skeptical, because everywhere they looked more and more women were walking around in headscarves, but they were willing to look the other way because the AKP might just get Turkey in the EU.

That was until the Mavi Marmara incident.

And now the world is up in arms about whose side Turkey is on.

What is at work here is a solid example of Three-Level Games, a theory (largely attributable to Charlie) that expands Putnam’s Two-Level Game theory to include pressure on decision makers from the domestic and international spheres, as well as pressure from supra-national organisations, such as the EU. Or even in this case, the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis. My point here being that even association with one group over another is just one more thing that heads of state must worry about when making decisions. As soon as the world perceived that Turkey wanted more to do with Iran than Europe, all of a sudden Turkey was “lost.”

However, I believe that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates jumped the gun on the blame game when he pretty much openly blamed the EU for pushing Turkey away. He said, “I personally think that if there is anything to the notion that Turkey is, if you will, moving eastward, it is, in my view, in no small part because it was pushed, and pushed by some in Europe refusing to give Turkey the kind of organic link to the West that Turkey sought."

Quick though he may have been to point a finger, he still has it pointed in the right direction. Certainly the EU, specifically Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, have not helped matters by leading Turkey on indefinitely. However, if the EU were to opens its arms now, it certainly will not fix everything.

I also don’t believe that Turkey is planning on taking up arms with Iran against the rest of the world because it voted against the US in the UN Security Council vote on new nuclear sanctions for Iran. (Although I wouldn’t put it entirely past the AKP. But that’s just my personal opinion.)

As I said before, Turkey is only trying to carve out its own niche. One that no longer pegs it as the US satellite it was during the Cold War, and not completely reliant on Europe either. This is not simply a black and white issue. To put it simply, Turkey has grown up, and is just asking that the other nations of the world treat it more like a peer and less like a pet. And the US needs to carefully consider this as it is becoming clearer that this strategic ally clearly holds sway in a region where the US is very much embroiled currently.

What remains to be seen during this fight over Turkey is what the Turkish electorate thinks. While Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has certainly made a few strong, and undiplomatic, statements recently, will he manage to lead the AKP to another victory in elections next year? The CHP is under new leadership and its coalition is gaining in popularity and might just be posed for a comeback. But a change in party could easily go back on the all of the recent progress.

In the meantime, Turkey should just be allowed to be Turkey.

Relevant reading:Arabs and Israelis Misread Turkey, The Daily Star
Houston, We've Got Zero Problems, Andrew Finkel, Today's Zaman
Turkey and the West: Everybody Take a Valium, Doug Sarro, The Huffington Post